我国到底有多少只东北虎

摘要

东北虎是我国稀有的珍贵动物，东北虎在我国的数量，究竟还有多少呢？为确切了解我国东北虎的数量状况，国内的权威部门以及不少的林业部门在过去进行了实际的数量调查，他们设计和安排了许多测试，根据脚印, 粪便, 收集了大量的原始数据，以求能较为客观地了解东北虎的真实数量状况，但由于统计方法的不同，数量的调查结果存在着1定的差异,因此对1个群体的数量只能作1个大概的估计. 本文就用数理统计的方法对我国现存东北虎的只数进行了矩法估计，极大似然估计和贝叶斯估计.

关键词：矩法估计;极大似然估计;贝叶斯估计;超几何分布.

How Many Northeast Tigers In Our Country

ABSTRACT

In China, Northeast tiger is a kind of rare and precious animal. But after all, how many Northeast tigers are there in our country? In order to know the number of the Northeast tigers in our country, the domestic authorities and many forestry departments did some practical quantitative investigations in the past. They designed and arranged many tests, and also according to the tracks and dung they collected a lot of original data in an attempt to know objectively the real quantity condition of Northeast tigers. However, because of different statistic methods, there are some differences in the quantitative investigation result. Therefore, we could only have a general estimation about the number of the group. In this paper, I will use the device of mathematical statistics to do moment method of estimation, maximum likelihood estimation, Bayes estimation about the number of our country s existent Northeast tigers.

Key words: moment method of estimation; Maximum likelihood estimation;

Bayes estimation; Supper geometrical distribution.

目 录

中文题目

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中文摘要，关键词

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英文题目

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英文摘要，关键词

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前言

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1. 1些基本概念

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2. 2项分布的几个结果

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3. 基本假设

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4. 东北虎的只数问题

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参考文献

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4)

致谢词

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5)